DNKN - After Action

This is my after action report for DNKN.

**Quick disclaimer: as I just started this blog, there will be several entries that are only after action, as I had already purchased the shares.  I am not trying to make myself look better than I really am by only reporting good trades.  I will put every trade I make on this blog, good or bad.**

DNKN was bought March 9, 2012 at $30.74.  This trade was entered based on a the cup and handle formation that was formed from Oct to Feb (cup) and mid-Feb to March (handle).  The buy was signaled on a breach of the $30.25 level.

DNKN was sold on August 2, 2012 at $28.76, for a loss of $1.98/share or -6.44% before commission and taxes.  The sell was made as I finally pulled my head from my ass and realized that this stock had turned against me and would not be returning to profitability any time soon.  This was a great example of laziness and lack of discipline on my part.

The sell should have been made on July 20, when the upward trend line was broken.  That would have been somewhere in the $33 range, which would have been a nice 10% or so profit (before t&c).  Looking back at this I simmer in rage at my inablility to do the right thing here.  The signs were obvious, just lacking execution on my part.  The only positive to take away from this is that I did finally wake up and pulled the plug without further damage to my capital.

I would rate myself 4/10 on this particular trade.  I followed my position sizing guidelines and obeyed my risk rules.  I had sound reasoning for my entry but totally screwed the exit up.  By not executing the exit properly I turned a winner into a loser.  The key will be to make sure that I learn from this mistake and not repeat it in the future.

This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof and is subject to change without notice.  This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.  Following me in trades will lose you money.

UA - Sell

Sold the UA August $55 calls for $3.40 at 11:54am August 7, 2012.  The purchase was described here.

The gains for this transaction were $2.30/contract or 209.1%.  This trade went exactly as planned.  There exists the possibility that these contracts will continue to run higher, but the odds were not great enough that it was worth violating my exit plan.  The underlying stock touched above $58 today, which as I explained in the purchase piece was where I thought it would go.  The stock has made quite the run over the last couple of days becoming a little over-extended.  The greater probability over the next couple of days is for sideways, possibly corrective price movement.  Given the time-sensitive nature of options, the time to exit was now.

I would rate myself 9/10 on this particular trade.  I followed my position sizing guidelines and obeyed my risk rules.  I had sound reasoning for my entry and nailed the exit.  There is a small chance that I left money on the table, however I am completely satisfied with a three-bagger.

This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof and is subject to change without notice.  This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.  Following me in trades will lose you money.

WFM - After Action

This is my after action report for WFM.

**Quick disclaimer: as I just started this blog, there will be several entries that are only after action, as I had already purchased the shares.  I am not trying to make myself look better than I really am by only reporting good trades.  I will put every trade I make on this blog, good or bad.**

WFM was bought June 19, 2012 at $95.  This trade was entered based on a new high in prolonged up-trend, combined with the possibility for the $100 dollar roll and the probability for excellent quarterly results.

WFM was sold on July 20, 2012 at $84.86, for a loss of $10.14/share or -10.6% before commission and taxes.  The sell was triggered as there appeared to be a complete character change in this issue.  I was taken off guard by the correlation that this stock ended up showing with CMG.  On July 19 CMG announced in the market after hours quarterly results that were disappointing.  WFM had already been showing some weakness that whole week.  Not enough to sell yet, mind you as the trend line was still intact and my call for a strong quarter was still in play.  Nonetheless, the poor quarter by CMG helped to push Whole Foods off the cliff.  In a logical world, poor results in the restaurant should not have this tight of correlation with the grocery business.  Certainly there is a relationship, but WFM should have seen a minor dip, not the major correction it did.  Regardless, I should have handled this one better.  Once the 50 day was crossed (on July 19), I should have bailed, which would have saved me some capital.

The other mistake I made with this one was that as I recovered I thought that the August call options would have been an easy play to regain some of my capital.  This would have been the right play as my thesis of strong quarterly results was still in play.  Indeed given the four day beating this stock took, the calls were cheap and then took off like a rocket when the quarterly results were announced.  Unfortunately life conspired to keep me out of that trade, so I missed it.

I would rate myself 4/10 on this particular trade.  I had sound reasoning for my entry but let the exit get away from me.  I followed my position sizing guidelines and obeyed my risk rules.

This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof and is subject to change without notice.  This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.  Following me in trades will lose you money.

ALJ - Sell

Sold ALJ at $12.00 at 9:30 on August 7, 2012.  The purchase was described here.

ALJ jumped this morning on the news of the Chevron refinery fire in California last night.  This triggered my existing limit order to hit at the opening bell this morning.  As detailed in the purchase piece, this was my targeted exit price.  The gains for this transaction were $2.50/share or 26.34% before taxes and commissions.

I would rate myself 9/10 on this particular trade.  I followed my position sizing guidelines and obeyed my risk rules.  I had sound reasoning for my entry and nailed the exit.  There is a small chance that I left money on the table, but I think the likelihood is for a pull back in the next couple of days in ALJ.

This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof and is subject to change without notice.  This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.  Following me in trades will lose you money.

YELP - After Action

This is my after action report for YELP.

**Quick disclaimer: as I just started this blog, there will be several entries that are only after action, as I had already purchased the shares.  I am not trying to make myself look better than I really am by only reporting good trades.  I will put every trade I make on this blog, good or bad.**

YELP was bought June 7, 2012 at $17.46.  This trade was entered based on a reversal of price action and a positive MACD cross over.  Like most of my trades, YELP was brought to my attention via the Twitter machine.  Once I completed my research and found it to be a positive target, the trigger was pulled.

YELP was sold on July 11, 2012 at $21.24, for a gain of $3.78/share or 21.6% before commission and taxes.  The sell was triggered by negative reversal of price action and an equally negative MACD cross over.  I was disappointed in the sell, as I feel that YELP has some more upside in the long term, but I was not willing to risk profits waiting for the bus to turn around.  Especially in this current market environment where negative news from the financial shit-hole that is currently Europe could have wiped all my gains from the book.

I would rate myself 8/10 on this particular trade.  I had sound reasoning for both my entry and exit, followed my position sizing guidelines and obeyed my risk rules.

YELP will remain on my radar as I believe that it is forming a cup and handle formation, and I will look for a possible re-entry on a break (on volume) above $26.

This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof and is subject to change without notice.  This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.